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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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