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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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