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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
Friday, 18 May 18
INDONESIA'S SAMARINDA ANCHORAGE COAL LOADING ACTIVITIES WERE RESUMED YESTERDAY AT 4PM LOCAL TIME
Samarinda Anchorage coal loading activities were resumed yesterday at 4PM local time.
Local fishermen in Samarinda Anchorage have been demonst ...
Wednesday, 16 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Half-way through the second quarter of the year and as the Posidonia week approaches everyone is getting ready for this unique gathering that besid ...
Thursday, 10 May 18
PRIVATE POWER PRODUCERS NEED A 'POWERFUL PUSH' - PRADEEP MITTAL
- PLF of the Private Sector in the country (Coal and Lignite based) for FY 2017-18 (till Dec 2017) is 56%.
- 51 GW of stressed assets (Thermal &a ...
Tuesday, 08 May 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$1 BILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT INDONESIA PRATAMA
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, has entered into mining services contracts with PT Indones ...
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Showing 1721 to 1725 news of total 6871 |
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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