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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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