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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
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Showing 1711 to 1715 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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