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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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