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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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Showing 1766 to 1770 news of total 6871 |
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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