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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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