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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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