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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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