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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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