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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing da ...
Thursday, 19 July 18
VINACOMIN PRODUCES OVER 20 MLN TONNES OF RAW COAL FROM YEAR'S START - VNA
The Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has produced over 20 million tonnes of raw coal and 19.3 million of clean coal f ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
INDONESIA TO AUCTION 16 MINING SITES - JP
Indonesia will soon auction 16 mining sites as no proposal submissions have been submitted by state-owned enterprises (BUMN) and regional administr ...
Wednesday, 18 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
The new regulations for Chinese flag restricting import of Tier I ships have dominated market sentiment during the past days as buyers have been tr ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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