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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 31 July 18
ENERGY MINISTRY REMAINS FIRM ON DMO POLICY FOR COAL - JP
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has stressed that it will not cancel its policy on the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coal, as the ...
Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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