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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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