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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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