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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
COURT CONCLUDES DELIVERY MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH TERMS OF LOIS - INCE&CO
Glencore Agriculture BV v Navig8 Chemicals Pool Inc (Songa Winds) [2018] EWCA 1901 (Civ)
In this case, the Commercial Court fo ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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