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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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