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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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