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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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