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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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