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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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