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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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