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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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