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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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