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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
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Showing 1566 to 1570 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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