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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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