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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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