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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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