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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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