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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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