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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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