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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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