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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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