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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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