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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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