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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
Tuesday, 04 September 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN SECTOR REMAINED ACTIVE WITH RATES STILL FIRM ESPECIALLY IN SE ASIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships, with a few slower days in the market. A build-up of tonnage and a lack of Brazil cargoes r ...
Thursday, 30 August 18
SUPRAMAX: CIS COAL TO FAR EAST WENT AT MID TENS AND TO SE ASIA AT CA USD 8000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There was a slow start this week with holiday in UK on Monday. The index has been slowly coming off since then; The C5 route has seen ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise i ...
Wednesday, 29 August 18
IMPACT ON CHARTERPARTIES - TIME TO ACT NOW : NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges introduced by the global sulphur cap are not exclusively technical. The new limits are likely to impact co ...
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Showing 1631 to 1635 news of total 6871 |
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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