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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
Thursday, 02 August 18
INDO / CHINA COAL RV'S IS PAYING AROUND USD 11,000 TO SUPRAS BSS DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The counter seasonally strong market during the summer months bodes well for the remainder of the year.
According ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
JOKOWI CANCELS PLAN TO REVOKE COAL DMO - JP
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo on Tuesday has canceled the government’s plan to revoke the domestic market obligation (DMO) for coa ...
Wednesday, 01 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to ...
Tuesday, 31 July 18
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO CHANGE COAL SUPPLY, PRICING RULES UNTIL 2019 - REUTERS
Indonesia is unlikely to change its rules on domestic coal supply and pricing until 2019, Coordinating Maritime Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said on M ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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