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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 12 July 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS BEING FIXED AROUND USD 10500 BSS SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Cape market continue to be extremely volatile says Fearnleys in its latst weekly report.
The further noted that, last week ended wi ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
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Showing 1671 to 1675 news of total 6871 |
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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