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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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