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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
BHEL COMMISSIONS 600 MW THERMAL POWER PLANT FOR APGENCO IN ANDHRA PRADESH
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has successfully commissioned a 600 MW coal-based thermal power plant in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUEK GROUP SECURES $1.055BN 5-YEAR SYNDICATED PRE-EXPORT FINANCE FACILITY
SUEK Group signed a $1.055bn syndicated pre-export loan agreement. The facility with five years duration is secured against the Group’s expor ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
COAL PRICES UP SAYS MINERALS COUNCIL - IAN KIRKWOOD,THE HERALD
NSW thermal coal exports were at near-record levels last year but prices were up, the Minerals Council of NSW has said after appraising annual stat ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
NEW COAL PRICE FORMULA DOESN'T APPLY RETROACTIVELY: OFFICIAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has decided to change the implementation period of the new discounted price formula for coal sold to the ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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