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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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