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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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