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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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