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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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