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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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