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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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