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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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