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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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