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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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