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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure and have significantly been declining since Q3 of 2017 as a result of demand-supply imbalance. Lately, Brent crude oil has hit a 3-year high evidence that OPEC’s policy for supply cuts is supporting prices. Forecasts for 2018 indicate elevated oil demand that might lead to healthier tanker rates, subject to a number of other factors as well.
IEA forecasts global crude oil demand to rise by 1.3% mainly on the back of increased imports by China and India. China’s crude oil imports increased by 800,000 bpd in 2017, representing 50% of the global oil demand growth. China’s domestic oil demand continues to grow, while inland output is respectively descending. IEA projects China’s oil import dependence to rise to 80% by 2040. Additionally, India’s crude oil demand is increasing rapidly, with the country’s import dependence reaching 82% last year. India’s imports from OPEC’s countries declined during 2017, while total imports from non OPEC producers such as US, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan significantly increased. BP projects the country’s energy demand to rise faster than any other major economy between now and 2035. India’s oil consumption averaged 4.6 million bpd in 2017 and it is projected that the country’s crude oil demand will increase 4.3% in 2018.
It is reported that OPEC will maintain output cuts, while demand continues to grow in 2018. Non-OPEC production is estimated to grow by 1.3 million bpd, with most of it sourced from the US, paving the way for significant ton-mile demand gains, as the USG to Asia represents one of the longest hauls possible. US exports have already started to increase, a trend which is probable bound to continue as OPEC sticks to current production levels. Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the trouble in Venezuela could discourage ton-mile growth as Europe and Asia are important consumers of Venezuelan crude and exports to these regions represent one of the longest hauls. Therefore, as US exports continue to grow, much of this benefit may be offset by declining long haul routes out of Venezuela.
When prices trended lower in past years, inventories built up and demand for storage spiked. Respectively, such demand diminished as inventories reached peak levels and storage became rarer. Nowadays, we are in the downward phase of this cycle almost after 5 years, as inventories are being utilized. Once inventory capacities return to more manageable levels, in line with historical averages, this would allow trade flows to stabilize, which could be a sort of tailwind for the crude tanker market once it all plays out. Of course the tanker deliveries that are schedule for this year, estimated at around 10.7 million dwt, as far as crude carriers are concerned, will most probably offset part of this expected upside.
A healthier crude market is expected in 2018, with analysts anticipating most of the upside to take place closer to the end of the year. As discussed, various supply-demand essentials may disturb the trade patterns and as always numerous of currently unknown risks could also present themselves during the year. Undoubtedly it looks like all of these trends will require close monitoring in the year ahead.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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